Based on big data systems such as China Index Database, China Index Landlord and China Index Commerce, China Index Research Institute has shared research achievements such as 2019 China's real estate market situation summary and 2020 trend outlook real estate market situation and integrated development trend, annual operation status of key real estate enterprises, risk assessment of real estate enterprises, etc.
Research and judgment on the real estate market situation in 2020: the market continues to adjust the tone, and the long-term mechanism ensures the overall balance
(1) The expectation of the adjustment of the national real estate market was basically established, and the adjustment range was stable and controllable. The month on month growth of new residential buildings in 100 cities across the country has been stable within 0.4% for 12 consecutive months, and the year-on-year growth has been corrected for 12 consecutive months. Looking forward to 2020, the sales area of commercial housing across the country is expected to continue to fluctuate steadily, and the market is difficult to see big ups and downs. Considering that there is still a large space for urbanization in China and the demand for improvement is still strong, the adjustment range of the real estate market is controllable as a whole.
(2) The performance of the real estate market in different cities is deeply differentiated. The differentiation of real estate market performance will be more obvious in various cities due to the differences in urban policies, urban fundamentals and the development stages of the real estate market. Some of the first tier cities have stabilized their regulation, which helps further restore market confidence; The overall market size of second tier cities may fluctuate, with hot cities increasing steadily and some cities operating rationally; The downward pressure of adjustment in the third and fourth tier cities is gradually emerging. The urbanization rate of the third and fourth tier cities has increased rapidly, but the market downward pressure caused by such factors as the release of high demand and the delayed effect of the monetization of the shantytown reform will gradually emerge.
(3) The long-term mechanism ensures the balanced operation of the market. In 2019, the overall regulation policy was tight, but since the fourth quarter, some cities have taken measures to ensure the reasonable demand of residents for self occupancy. The future regulation policy will mainly focus on financial regulation, demand regulation and long-term mechanism, to achieve a better balance between macroeconomic stability and the stability of the real estate market, to ensure the balance between the purchase demand of self occupied groups and curb irrational demand, and to establish a long-term mechanism to guide the market supply and demand balance.
Real estate market: urban differentiation is more significant, and integrated development brings new opportunities
The price increase of new residential buildings narrowed, and the transaction scale remained stable. The land market has cooled as a whole, and the rate of unsold auctions has rebounded, but the transaction price is still at a relatively high level, and the popularity of land auctions has spread from second tier cities to third tier and fourth tier cities. Both the scale of residential inventory and the de transformation cycle have recovered recently, but they are still at a reasonable level. Among them, the short-term residential inventory and long-term residential land inventory in the first, second and strong third tier cities are obviously insufficient. The overall cyclical characteristics of the region have weakened, but the cyclical rotation characteristics between cities are significant. The trading volume and price of residential buildings in different grades of cities show significant differentiation and rotation characteristics.
The implementation of the regional integration development strategy has been fully accelerated, which has brought dividends in population, transportation, industry, etc., which will form a long-term good for the real estate market and bring new investment opportunities. As the region with the most dynamic economy, strong innovation ability and large immigrant population in China, the real estate market in the Pearl River Delta will play a more prominent role in the strategic layout of enterprises.
Interpretation of key real estate enterprises' business performance in 2019: further increase in concentration and overall controllable industrial risks
(1) Performance growth slowed down year on year, and industry concentration further improved. From January to October 2019, the average sales volume of the top 100 real estate enterprises reached 92.89 billion yuan, and the average sales area was 6.763 million square meters, with a slight year-on-year growth. Among them, there are 25 enterprises with 100 billion yuan, and it is expected that by the end of the year, there will be 35 real estate enterprises with more than 100 billion yuan. The industry market concentration continues to expand, and the camp differentiation is obvious.
(2) The land acquisition attitude is rational and prudent, and the industry risks are generally controllable. From January to October 2019, the total amount of land acquired by representative real estate enterprises decreased by 0.7% year on year, and the attitude of land acquisition was more rational. The new land reserves of representative real estate enterprises were transferred to second tier cities, and the new equity area of second tier cities accounted for 49.6%, up 10.0 percentage points year on year. The profitability, operating capacity and solvency of listed real estate enterprises decreased slightly, the differentiation pattern was more obvious, and the industry risks were generally in the safe category.
(3) Industry differentiation and integration are intensifying, and the "four types" of real estate enterprises need to focus on. The industry has entered a period of high-quality development, and differentiation and regulation will be normalized. In the future, we need to focus on the risks of four types of real estate enterprises: the first type is the real estate enterprises with high price land accounting for too high a proportion, and with payment collection and capital hidden dangers; Second, small real estate enterprises with insufficient financing capacity; The third category is the housing enterprises (especially regional ones) with excessively centralized layout and high proportion of the third and fourth tier; The fourth category is the real estate enterprises with product mismatch, unstable quality and other problems leading to the decline of brand strength.
On the basis of the research results report, around the theme of "the way to break the situation and investment opportunities for real estate enterprises and financial institutions under strong financial supervision", all parties On the overall real estate financing environment, real estate investment opportunities, and cooperation opportunities between financial institutions and real estate enterprises And other major issues, and formed the following main views:
financial institution Main points
About the overall real estate financing environment ： The Politburo meeting laid the main tone of "not taking real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy". The policy implementation is usually continuous and coherent to ensure the regular operation of the financial system. Therefore, the main tone of the policy will not change significantly in the past two years. At the beginning of next year, the loan limit of financial institutions will be re issued, and the real estate financing environment will be improved to a certain extent. In addition, some real estate financing tools may be suspended next year.
about real estate Investment opportunities: In 2020, there will still be great opportunities for real estate investment, but we need to be alert to two major threats: first, if we calculate according to the CPI method, the pork price rise from the third quarter will continue to the second quarter of next year, and it may be difficult for the CPI to return below 3 within half a year, in which case many quantitative easing policies are difficult to implement. Second, 2020 is the last year when the new asset management regulations expire. The market is holding a wait-and-see attitude, so we need to pay attention to the impact of the last year when the new asset management regulations expire and the policy response.
about real estate investment Attitude: There are some default events in the credit bond field of the real estate industry, and the risk is increasing. In the future, financial institutions will gradually tighten their requirements for enterprise qualification review, preferring the real estate industry with sound style, reasonable urban layout, strong management ability and strong risk control ability. The goal of financial institutions is to maximize the return on investment under the premise of controllable risk, and balance the return and risk. The real estate enterprises focusing on second tier cities in strategy have both stable returns and low risks.
Real estate enterprises Main points
about Investment and management of real estate enterprises ： Excellent real estate enterprises need to do a good job in two aspects of control: first, the pace of investment, accurately grasp the nodes of the regulation cycle, which will help to reach a new level when a new round of easing period comes; The second is management. The head camp real estate enterprises have strong comprehensive management ability, can achieve and do a good job in the national layout, and the heads of regional companies must have strong management ability, be familiar with the regional market, and be able to step on the urban cycle nodes.
About Room Characteristics of real estate industry ： The concentration of the real estate industry continued to increase, and the camp differentiation became increasingly obvious. On the one hand, the increase in concentration will lead to a decrease in the number of real estate enterprises, and the threshold value of the head camp will continue to increase; On the other hand, the policy is adjusted alternately. The policy easing period is generally good for the industry, while the policy tightening period will strengthen the advantages of high-quality housing enterprises, and the industry concentration will rapidly increase.
about Opportunities for real estate enterprises ： The Internet partnership system is adopted by real estate enterprises that are ready to overtake at corners or are aggressive, which can improve the whole industry market and the corporate governance structure. The scale effect of the real estate industry should be affected by the business model. If the business model can be copied, it is easier to achieve the scale effect, and also helps to improve the management efficiency. Many types of real estate industry have not realized scale effect, and there are still opportunities in the future real estate industry.
